About the Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) Course
This site presents a rigorous, proof-oriented course on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). It is designed for:
- Graduate students in statistics, machine learning, or applied mathematics
- Researchers and advanced practitioners who want a mathematically honest treatment of HMMs
- Instructors who need a reference set of lecture-style notes and problem sets
The course emphasizes calm clarity over flash: clean typography, high-contrast math, and a modular layout so you can move between foundations, algorithms, theory, and applications without friction.
Pedagogical Philosophy
- Theory-first, but example-driven. Core results are stated and proved, with pointers to Zucchini et al. and more advanced monographs.
- Separation of concerns.
- Section 0–1: probability and Markov chains
- Section 2–3: model construction and likelihoods
- Section 4–5: algorithms and estimation
- Section 6–9: asymptotic theory and advanced variants
- Section 10–11: applications and proof-based problem sets
- Notation stability. Notation is aligned as much as possible with Zucchini, MacDonald & Langrock to make cross-reading easy.
Who Should Use This Material
You will benefit most if you:
- Are comfortable with undergraduate probability and linear algebra
- Are willing to engage with proofs and derivations (not just code)
- Want to connect HMM algorithms to broader ideas in stochastic processes and statistical inference
If your background is lighter, start with Section 0 (Mathematical Prerequisites) and use the references to fill any gaps.
How This Site Is Structured
- Home page: Quick overview, value proposition, and module view of the course.
- Overview (HMM.md): A textual syllabus with references and links to all sections.
- Sections 0–11: Each section is a self-contained set of notes with definitions, theorems, and proof sketches.
- Resources & Help:
About (this page): context and intended audience
FAQ: practical questions on using the notes
Contact: how to suggest corrections or improvements
Primary References
This course is intentionally compatible with:
- Zucchini, MacDonald, Langrock – Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R.
- Cappé, Moulines, Rydén – Inference in Hidden Markov Models.
- Douc, Moulines, Stoffer – Nonlinear Time Series: Theory, Methods and Applications.
- Rabiner (1989) – A Tutorial on Hidden Markov Models and Selected Applications in Speech Recognition.
You can treat these notes as a bridge between the applied style of Zucchini et al. and the more measure-theoretic style of Cappé–Moulines–Rydén.