About This HMM Course

About the Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) Course

This site presents a rigorous, proof-oriented course on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). It is designed for:

  • Graduate students in statistics, machine learning, or applied mathematics
  • Researchers and advanced practitioners who want a mathematically honest treatment of HMMs
  • Instructors who need a reference set of lecture-style notes and problem sets

The course emphasizes calm clarity over flash: clean typography, high-contrast math, and a modular layout so you can move between foundations, algorithms, theory, and applications without friction.

Pedagogical Philosophy

  • Theory-first, but example-driven. Core results are stated and proved, with pointers to Zucchini et al. and more advanced monographs.
  • Separation of concerns.
    • Section 0–1: probability and Markov chains
    • Section 2–3: model construction and likelihoods
    • Section 4–5: algorithms and estimation
    • Section 6–9: asymptotic theory and advanced variants
    • Section 10–11: applications and proof-based problem sets
  • Notation stability. Notation is aligned as much as possible with Zucchini, MacDonald & Langrock to make cross-reading easy.

Who Should Use This Material

You will benefit most if you:

  • Are comfortable with undergraduate probability and linear algebra
  • Are willing to engage with proofs and derivations (not just code)
  • Want to connect HMM algorithms to broader ideas in stochastic processes and statistical inference

If your background is lighter, start with Section 0 (Mathematical Prerequisites) and use the references to fill any gaps.

How This Site Is Structured

  • Home page: Quick overview, value proposition, and module view of the course.
  • Overview (HMM.md): A textual syllabus with references and links to all sections.
  • Sections 0–11: Each section is a self-contained set of notes with definitions, theorems, and proof sketches.
  • Resources & Help:
    • About (this page): context and intended audience
    • FAQ: practical questions on using the notes
    • Contact: how to suggest corrections or improvements

Primary References

This course is intentionally compatible with:

  • Zucchini, MacDonald, Langrock – Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R.
  • Cappé, Moulines, Rydén – Inference in Hidden Markov Models.
  • Douc, Moulines, Stoffer – Nonlinear Time Series: Theory, Methods and Applications.
  • Rabiner (1989) – A Tutorial on Hidden Markov Models and Selected Applications in Speech Recognition.

You can treat these notes as a bridge between the applied style of Zucchini et al. and the more measure-theoretic style of Cappé–Moulines–Rydén.